Autumn Budget 2026: What UK Expats in Portugal Should Watch For

Moving to Portugal does not take you out of the UK tax system completely. If you still own a UK rental flat, hold a UK pension, keep investments in the UK or expect to leave an estate with UK assets, decisions taken in Westminster still reach you…

On Wednesday 28 October 2026, Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Autumn Budget, and the first of Andy Burnham's government. With rises in the headline rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT ruled out by the manifesto, the Treasury's options are narrow. That pushes attention towards exactly the areas expats care about: property, savings, capital gains and inheritance tax.

This guide sets out what is already locked in, what is being discussed, and the practical steps worth taking before Budget Day.

What is already confirmed, whatever happens on 28 October

Several changes were announced at earlier Budgets and are already scheduled. A Budget can amend them, but you should plan on the basis that they will happen.

What could change on Budget Day

Nothing below is confirmed. These are the areas commentators are watching most closely, and the ones most likely to affect UK expats.

Capital gains tax

The Prime Minister has long argued that the UK taxes work more heavily than wealth. That has fuelled speculation about aligning capital gains tax more closely with income tax. The main CGT rate already rose from 20% to 24% in October 2024.

For expats, the key point is that non-residents remain liable to UK CGT on UK property, including your former home and any buy-to-let. If you are thinking of selling, timing around the Budget could matter.

Inheritance tax reliefs

The Prime Minister has reportedly said he is willing to "look again" at the 2024 restrictions on agricultural property relief. Whether that extends to business property relief is unclear. Wider IHT reform so soon after the April 2026 changes is thought to be less likely but cannot be ruled out.

Property and land

A full replacement of stamp duty and council tax with an annual land value tax was reported in August as not going ahead at this Budget. Smaller property changes remain possible. Non-UK residents already pay a 2% stamp duty surcharge on top of standard rates in England and Northern Ireland, plus the 5% surcharge on additional homes.

Frozen thresholds

The manifesto pledge protects tax rates, not thresholds. Extending the freezes beyond 2031 would raise money quietly. Ending them early would be expensive, so it is unlikely.

Why the UK Budget still matters once you live in Portugal

Becoming tax resident in Portugal changes where you are taxed on most of your worldwide income. It does not switch off the UK entirely.

• UK property: rental profits and gains on UK land remain taxable in the UK. Under the UK–Portugal double tax agreement, Portugal also taxes them as a resident, giving credit for UK tax paid. Higher UK rates can therefore mean a higher overall bill, not just a shift between countries.
• UK pensions: how they are taxed depends on the type. Most private and workplace pensions are taxed in Portugal; UK government service pensions are generally taxed only in the UK.
• Inheritance tax: since April 2025 the UK applies IHT based on long-term residence rather than domicile. Many people who leave the UK remain within the scope of UK IHT on their worldwide estate for several years after departure. Portugal has no inheritance tax as such, so UK rules often drive the outcome.
• Returning to the UK: if you might come back, changes to ISAs, dividends and the foreign income regime for new arrivals all become relevant again.

What to do before 28 October

1. Review any planned UK property sale. If you intend to sell a UK property in the next year, discuss the timing of exchange and completion with an adviser.
2. Check your UK estate exposure. Work out whether you are still within the UK's long-term residence test for IHT, and what your estate looks like once pensions are added from April 2027.
3. Look again at your State Pension record. With Class 2 gone, check whether Class 3 top-ups still make sense for you.
4. Do not rush. Most changes take effect from 6 April 2027. Acting on speculation can cost more than waiting a few weeks for certainty.

What UK Expats in Portugal Should Keep in Mind

For those living in Portugal with financial ties to the UK, understanding how tax rules in both countries interact is important, particularly when it comes to property, pensions and inheritance.

We will publish a follow-up after 28 October explaining what the UK Autumn Budget actually changes and what it means for British expats in Portugal.

This article is general information and is not tax or legal advice. Figures are correct as of 20 October 2026 and may change at the Budget on 28 October 2026.